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[ժҪ]?????Ϻ???????8??21????Ѷ ?????ֻ??ƽ?(1151.00, -2.20, -0.19%)????(8??20??)????????,????55?վ??ߺ???չ?Ƿ?,????1150??Ԫ/??˾?ؿ?,??дһ???¸ߵ?1151.10??Ԫ/??˾,...

?????Ϻ???????8??21????Ѷ ?????ֻ??ƽ?(1151.00, -2.20, -0.19%)????(8??20??)????????,????55?վ??ߺ???չ?Ƿ?,????1150??Ԫ/??˾?ؿ?,??дһ???¸ߵ?1151.10??Ԫ/??˾,?????Ƿ???1.50%,???̳???Ȼ????????????̳?ίԱ??(FOMC)7?»????Ҫ??ζ??,??Ԫ??????ҹ????,???е???96?ؿ?,??д5?ܵ?λ.ŷԪ/??Ԫ?򷴵??ϴ?1.12?ؿ?,??д2???¸?λ??1.1220.ȫ?????ȫ???´?,?ƽ??ı???????Ҳ?⵽????.???????ҹ?Ǯ???????ֵ?????γɵIJ?ȷ????,?????ƽ??????????1999??????????ƺ?????ڶ???????.?ݱ???,COMEX?????12???ƽ??ڻ???Լ?ڱ???ʱ??22:32??22:35?ķ??????ۼƳɽ?5928??,?????ֻ??ƽ?????1150??Ԫ/??˾?ؿ?,?Ƿ???1.5%. 1F6F.png ????FOMC??Ҫû?й???9?¼?Ϣ???κ?ͷ??,??ֱһ?еĹ?Ա??Ϊ???󿴵????????Ӻ??Ͷ????̳?????΢???????ͨ??ˮƽ?Ľ?һ??????,??????ԭ??(41.06, -0.26, -0.63%)?ٴ???????λ??????Ҽ?ֵ????Ҳ?Ӿ????̳???ͨ?????е?????,??????9?¼?Ϣ????. ???????ڷ??????????????ڳ??븳?н???????Ȼ????ǰʷλ???ڽ?,?????????????̳???Ȼ?Ƚ??Ľ?.7??NAR???ݳ??۸?д??8???λ,?Ͻ???һ??֧?־??ó???????.????,?ѳ?????????ҵָ??????Ԥ??,??????Ͻ????????ҵ????Ļ???.????Ԫ????????????,??Ȼ?????????????????Ҫ?????ı???ʧ????????,?????»???????96?ؿ?,??ʹ???95.86. ??????????????????Ȼ????ǰʷλ???ڽ?ˮƽ ?????????̳??Ƚ??Ľ? ?????????????????ڳ??븳?н??????????߸?,????ȫ?????븳?н???????Ȼ????ǰʷ??λ?ڽ?,???ҹ?˾????ˮƽ??Ȼ?Ƚϵ???.???յij?????ʾ,?ù??Ĺ????̳???Ȼ?Ƚ??Ľ?. ?????????͹???(DOL)????(8??20??)??????????????,????8??15?յ??ܼ???????븳?н?????????0.4????27.7??,Ԥ??27.2??,ǰֵ????Ϊ27.3??. ???????չ???,??????븳?н?????????30??,?????????̳????????????????.??????ʱ?ij??븳?н?????,?Ա???3?³?????,һ??????30???·?. ??????˾????ˮƽһ?????,һ?????ʽ???,????????????λ???ڰ???,???ּ??ۼ????ڱ????????Ĺ????̳????ڵ?????ĸ??չ켣֮??. ???????һ??,һ??н??ˮƽ???ֽϴ????????,??????֤????????????Ը????,?Ӷ?????ù??ľ??ø???. ????HSBC Securities USA Inc.????ѧ??Ryan Wang??,???븳?н???????Ȼ??????ʮ???????ĵ?λ,?Ҵ??ڰ??ȵ????. ???????ݷ???֮??,·͸???????,???????ܸ??г???????С??????,?????ֲ???Ԥ??,?????ڽ????ȳ????????ѽ???21?ܴ???30??ؿ?????,?ټ?н??Ҳ¼?ñض?????,????????????????̳????ڲ??ϻ?ů,???ų?ֹ????????÷???չ,??ʹ?????????Դ??ڱ???9?¼?Ϣ?Ĺ켣??. ????????7?³??ݳ??????????8???λ ?Ͻ???һ??֧?־??ø??? ????????7?³??ݳ??????????,????2007??2???????????ˮƽ.??Ҳ????ʱ??????¥??΢?????յ????ƹ?ͬ.?????????ӳ?????,???ݳ???ռ?ȵ???80%.΢???ij??ݳ???,?Ͻ???һ??֧?־??ó???????. ????ȫ???ز???????Э??(NAR)???ķ?????????????,????7?³??ݳ????껯????????2.0%??559??,Ԥ?ڵ???1.2%,ǰֵ????Ϊ????3.0%. ???????????񲿻??ڽ??յij?????,??6?³??ݳ?????????548??.ֵ??ע?????,7?·??Ӽ۸??߸?,????????????ߵ?. ??????Ϊ????ɱ????ڵ?λ,?ҹ????̳?????,???????ƽ????ӳ???,????Ϊ???ø??չ???????.???յij??ݳ??۳???,?ټ??ϱ???????????ݿ???,??Ӫ??????????????¥????ʱ?????,??????????Ա??Ϊ¥???????ڳ????Ľ?̬??. ????ȫ???ز???????Э????ϯ????ѧ??Yun??,???????ݳ??ۺ???Ԥ??,??????????ƽ??۸?????,????Щ????????????η.???βɹ??Ļ????߷ݶ????28%,Ϊ????1?????????;7?¶???סլ????????,????7?³??ݳ?????????????2007??2????????λ. ?????ѳ?????????ҵָ??????Ԥ?? ??Ͻ???????????ӻ????????? ?????????ѳ?????(Philadelphia Fed)???ķ?????????,??Ͻ????8?·?????ҵ????Ļ???,??????Ͻ???ڵ?????ҵ?????????????Ҳ??????????. ????????????,????7?·ѳ?????????ҵָ??????8.3,Ԥ??Ϊ7.0,7??Ϊ5.7. ????ֵ??ע?????,ŦԼ????(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)??һ(8??17??)??,????8??ŦԼ????????ҵָ?????Ⱪ??,?Ҵ???2009??4???????????ˮƽ,???¶????ͳ????????»?,???????????????ָ???Ľ?. ????FOMC??Ҫ????ͨ???뺣????? 9?¼?ϢԤ?????Խ??? ??????????(FED)?????Ҫ???ķ???,??Ҫ??δ?ἰ??Ϣʱ?̵㷽?????ϸ??Ϣ,??Ҳ???̳?????9?¼?ϢԤ?????Խ???. ??????????7?»????Ҫ????,????Щ????????Ա??7?·?ʱ??Ϊ??Ϣ????"??δ"????,??"?Ѱ?????һ??".?????߳????Ե?ͨ?ͺ?ȫ?򾭼???????????????ձ??????.??Щ?????߳??ҹ????õ?ʵ?????Ż????????ǰ??????Σ??. ?????????Ҫ????,????????Ա?Թ????̳????,??λίԱ??Ϊ?????̳????ý??ڶ????ڸ?????????,??λίԱ???Ͷ??̳????ڻ?ʮ?ְ?????ֹ???.???????߶?ͨ??ȴû????ô????,??Ҫ????,??ֱһ?й?Ա??Ϊ???󿴵??йؾ??????Ӻ??Ͷ????̳?????΢???????ͨ??ˮƽ?Ľ?һ??????,??Щ??Ա?ƿ?????ԪΪͨ?ʹ???????ѹ??.??Ҫ??й©,??????ְ????ΪGDP???١?ͨ?Ͳ²???Ե?Σ??????????. ????"??????ͨѶ??"Hilsenrath?ڼ?Ҫ?????۳?,7?¹????????????Ͷ????̳??????Ľ?,??ͨ?ͽϵ??Լ??ҹ????????ٷŻ??ۼ?????????ίԱ??????????;????7?»????????ĸ??????ݲ?δ??ίԱ?????????????????Ӽ?.????ָ??,??????????ҹ??ھ??ÿ?չ????Ե?????ѹ??,????ЩίԱ???Ǿٶ????????ڴ?????????Եĸ?????ʱ?????йط??빤??;??????????????Ҫ???Ƿ????9?»????ϼ?Ϣ?ͷų??????ź?. ????·͸???????,????????????Ա????ͨ?ͳٳٲ?????ת??Ҫ????Ȼ????,???Ͷ????̳??ĸ?????????????????Ϣ.?????????ȫ???????????,??Ա????Ȼ???󿴵??ض??̶ȵľ??ø??պۼ??Ÿɾ???9?³???ʩ?м?Ϣ. ????Ͷ?ж????????ļ?ϢԤ?ڴ??ںܴ󲻺?,??CNBC?????µ?????????,΢??????????ѧ???????ڹ?????????????9?¼?Ϣ.??һ????ʹ???κ??µ???Ϣ?Լ?ϢԤ????һ?????Ե???Ϊ??Ҫ.Ħ????ͨ???ո????ʼ?????????9????Ӫ,????ʢ(Goldman Sachs)????ѧ??????Ϊ12?¼?Ϣ??Ҳ????????. ??????ʢ??????,???????????Ҫ??δ????̫??????,????ȫ?????????????,Ҫ???????ڶ???ͨ?͵?????,"??ֱһ??ίԱ????Ϊ???󿴵????????ݱ??????ú??Ͷ????̳?????΢??,?????ͨ???????ڻ?????ίԱ???ⶨ?ij?ʱ??ͨ?ͷ???ˮƽ???к???????",?˾??е?"??ֱһ??ίԱ"Dz??ǿ??. ???????ô?۹???ҵ????(CIBC)????ѧ??Avery Shenfeld?????ڳ?????д??,????9?¼?Ϣ??Ԥ??,?????????ͼ?Ҫ????֮???ʱ?̲??Լ???Ҫ?о?ͨ??????һЩ???⽫????????ʿ????һЩ??ο. ????Ħ????ͨ????ѧ??Bob Mellman????,"?????Թ??ƽ???9?¼?Ϣ.?ʵ???һ??ʱ??????????һ????Ϊ??Ϣʱ???ӽ?,?????????Ȼ???ƽ???9?¼?Ϣ." ?????????????µ???????ָ??,??ҪҲ?????????̳??۲??߶??ڼ?Ϣʱ?̵??Ԥ??,?????ǽ?????????????Ϣ??Ԥ??ʱ?̵??ƺ??????????????.?????Լ????Ϊ,"?????????Դ???9?¼?Ϣ?Ĺ켣????." ?????????,"?̳???Ϊ??????9?½?Ϣ???ʽ??͵???Ҫԭ???Ƕ?λίԱ??Ϊͨ???????е?ѹ??,һ?????????Ǻ???Σ?յ???չ." ????????????ʦָ??,"ʵ???ϼ?Ҫ??δ????һ????Ϊ???ɵ??ź?.????Һ?????,??Ҫչ?ֳ?ίԱ???????????????ڸ???ʱ?̽????ʱ????ڳ???ˮƽ.????Ҫ????,7?¼?Ҫ??????ǿ???????챣?ֵ?????Ҳ?????µ?DZ??Σ??." ??????˵??:"?ӱ?????????ϵ?İ???˼??,ίԱ?Ƕ??????????????????ʮ??ƫ??ӥ?ɵ??ź?,???̳????Ժ???????һ?ź?." ?????????ڻ?????,????Ա????????????9??16??-17?ջ????ϼ?Ϣ?ĸ???Ϊ36%,?????Ҫ??¯ǰ????Ϊ50%,???μ?Ϣʱ?̵??Ƴٵ?12??. ?????ƽ?????55?վ? Ͷ?з׷??????ƽ? ????????ͼ?Ͽ?,1155.00ˮƽ??6??18??-7??24?յ??Ƶ?61.8%쳲??????س?λ,???Ƿ?????һ??Ҫ??????. ????һ??,4Hͼ?Ͽ?,1155.00ˮƽ??ǰһ???????߶?1180.00-1126.60??1.618??չλ.?ƽ???̽????8?վ???֧?ֺ????34?վ???ǿ??????,?????Ϲ?1155.00ˮƽ. ?????ƽ?????ͼ?س?λ??4Hͼ?ϵ???չλ???1155.00ˮƽ,?˵ؽ???ɶ?չ?????Ҫ????. ??????????????????????֯FX Empire?????ڳ????б???,????ڶ????ڻ?????߸?,Ҳ?????????????֧??ˮƽ1150??Ԫ/??˾.????֯????,???ڶ??ƽ??ֿ????????,?????ܹ???ʱ?̳???.????֯??Ϊ,?ڽ??1150??ˮƽ?ڽ????????ҳ???,?????????. ????????????(OCBC Bank)פ?¼???????ʦBarnabas Gan????,"??????????9?¼?Ϣ??Ҳ????????,????Ϊ12?¼?Ϣ?и??ߵ?Ҳ????.?⽫?ڶ???֧???ƽ?." ??????????Ҳ???Ƴٵ?12?¼?Ϣ,??Ϣ?????ƽ????????DZ??.Gan??Ϊ,?ƽ??ij???????????1150ˮƽ,???DZ???ǰ?ڵ?Ҫ??֧??. ???????????(HSBC)????????,???Ʊ???????ƽ??۸?????10%,??1225??Ԫ/??˾?ڲ?.???ж???֮ǰ??ʢ(Goldman Sachs)??????ͬ??һ??????????Ϣ?????ս?۵??Դ?.????????????,?????Ĵ?????????Ϣ??,???ͨ??????????,???ǵ???. ????ETF Securities??????????Mike McGlone??Ϊ,?????̳???????,???Ҳ????????Ƹ?,????????1300??Ԫ/??˾ˮƽ.McGlone??,1300??2015???ƽ??̳??ĸߵ?,???,?????ۻص???һˮƽ,???ǻص???????????϶?.McGlone˵:"????Ϊ??ۻ????´?????һˮƽ." ???????ڽ?ۻ?????????,McGlone????,????ƽ??ڻ??????ֻ???۵??????,????????????DZȽϺ?????."??һ??Comex?ڽ??????Ƶ??ֻ?????????ʱ,??2013??12??,??2013??12????2014??3??,?????1190???ǵ?1380??Ԫ/??˾.????˵??????ͷ?ز?,????ʱ??ͷͷ???û????ǰʷ??λ,???????.?ֻ???۴????????ӵ??????ȱ?ٵĹ?Ӧ." ????McGlone??Ϊ,???¼?¼?Ŀ?ͷͷ??????ӵ?δƽ?ֺ?Լ????????1300??Ԫ/??˾??۲??????.McGlone??ָ??,δƽ?ֺ?Լ??????????2010????????ߵ?,????δƽ?ֺ?Լ??????,?ͽ???Ǻܺ?????.???ʵ??ֵܿ?????QQ:675309141 ?绰:13816559247

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